New car registrations rise to 2.85 million in 2023 | E-cars increase by 16 per cent | Market expected to remain stable in 2024 | Clarity on framework conditions for electromobility urgently needed
Car manufacturers will succeed in delivering more new cars to customers in 2023 than last year. The Association of International Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (VDIK) expects around 2.85 million new car registrations for the year as a whole. That would be an increase of around 7 per cent compared to 2022.
VDIK President Reinhard Zirpel said today in Frankfurt am Main: “The passenger car market will recover in 2023, but at a low level. The tension in the supply chains has also eased to some extent. However, the market was mainly driven by the reduction of the high order backlog, while incoming orders are weakening. Our joy at the slight recovery this year is not unclouded. This is because the German passenger car market is now stabilising for the fourth year in a row well below the level of the pre-crisis years.”
Electromobility
The changes to the environmental bonus have had a clear impact on electric vehicles. Plug-in hybrids have no longer received a purchase subsidy since the beginning of the year. Buyers have responded to this, but plug-in hybrid registrations have collapsed as expected. In 2023, only 170,000 new plug-in hybrids are expected to be registered, 53 per cent fewer than in the previous year. Their share of the overall market will therefore fall to 6 per cent, compared to 14 per cent in 2022. At the same time, significantly more all-electric cars were purchased. We expect pure electric vehicles to increase by 16 per cent to 545,000 units. Their share of the overall market thus climbs to 19 per cent.
Commercial vehicles
The commercial vehicle market will grow by 9 per cent to 340,000 new registrations in the coming year. This means that the commercial vehicle market in 2023 will be close to the average level of the past ten years. Heavy commercial vehicles above 6 tonnes will see particularly strong growth of 19%.
Forecast 2024
Zirpel explained the forecast: “For 2024, we expect around 2.85 million new cars, which corresponds to this year’s level. After the decent recovery in 2023, the market will therefore maintain its level next year.” The VDIK expects around 620,000 new registrations of fully electric cars in 2024. That would be an increase of 14 per cent compared to this year. Zirpel: “There is still growth for e-vehicles, but the momentum will be significantly slower in 2024 than this year.”
General conditions for electric cars
Zirpel also addressed the political uncertainty surrounding the further development of electromobility: “The VDIK member companies offer around 230 electric models, which is 12 per cent more than at the beginning of the year. They are thus making a significant contribution to the spread of climate-friendly drive systems in Germany and to the target of 15 million fully electric cars by 2030 set by the German government.” However, Zirpel regretted that the German government had decided to significantly reduce the environmental bonus and phase it out at the end of 2024. Zirpel: “More than ever, the market needs clarity about the prospects for electromobility. To this end, the government should present a long-term overall concept for financial incentives for zero-emission vehicles. Priority must also be given to the further development and expansion of the charging infrastructure in both the public and private sectors.”
